Britney Spears Gives Salt Lake Real Estate Market Update
March 22nd, 2008 Categories: Real Estate News
Just kidding, I figured it was a better Headline than, Local Realtor Gives Accurate Data.
I find it interesting that people will read a web site and it assume it is the truth, the whole truth and nothing but the truth.
According a gentleman name Adam that has commented recently on 3 Pounds that everyone should read a web site called http://www.housingtracker.net/ The disclosure at the bottom of the site is as follows.
“The numbers provided here are asking prices derived from Realtor MLS listings. The data is an aggregate representation of large markets and should not be used for valuation of individual homes. While every attempt is made to deliver accurate data, the information on this website is provided as-is. No warranty or guarantee of accuracy is offered or implied. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-Share Alike 2.5 License.”
According to this site there are 10,149 active single family and condo listings in Salt Lake City. Their claim is that the data is from Realtor Listings, when you click the link it is Realtor.com, BTW Realtor.com is not owned by Realtors. It is a third party for profit corporation that has a very checkered past.
Well back to the data. I am a Realtor with access to the MLS and as I am typing there are 7,385 active listings in Salt Lake County which is a whole lot bigger than Salt Lake City. It is hard to get an actual count for the city because a lot of listings that are in the un-incorporated areas of the county show up as Salt Lake City. But, I ran a search for Salt Lake City anyway which includes those other listings too and the count is 1,975.
He claims that inventory is up 76% and that prices in Utah are going to come down 25%. That is pretty brassy statement.
Based on that all I have to say is double check your data. You don’t want to make large financial decisions based on a web site that sells ads and especially from people that go on and rant and make harsh statements based on some info they read somewhere.
I will never claim to be a 100% dead on accurate. The reason I say that is because the data is fluid and is always changing. Also no one person or organization has “all the data”. Nope, no way.
Well I don’t think Adam is deliberately trying to lie to people he just needs to get decent data, that’s all. I believe his intentions are honorable. One of the real clues he is not doing thorough homework was his comment “They are not partial to Utah and don’t try to sell you the Real Estate is local crap”
Although Real Estate is affected by things that happen Regionally, Nationally and Globally, make no mistake “Real Estate is Local In Nature”.
In February Forbes magazine rated Salt Lake as the best city to be buying right now. The reasons are jobs are plentiful, inventory is up, interest rates are great and buyer’s can negotiate a deal…
I welcome any input whether it can be substantiated or not.
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Rob - well done my friend - your title grabbed me
Rob,
I appreciate you writing an article based on my RANT. Where do I start.
1. housingtracker.net is using data from all of Salt Lake COUNTY, you didn’t research the website very well.
2. I did not say their info was 100% correct. I recommended checking it out because it is not partial to Utah, like you are. It is consistent and posted weekly, and shows that inventory is skyrocketing and asking prices are dropping. That is a fact that Utah Realtors are trying to hide from the public.
3. I would never base a large finacial decision on a website that sells advertising. I would also never base a large financial decision on the advise of a Realtor’s blog. I was just trying to protect poor Angie from you.
4. Real Estate is Local, I would never dispute that. I am just tired of all the Realors in Utah trying to tell everyone we have a different fate than Arizona, Nevada, and California. These states were victims to greedy Realtors, Appraisers, and Investors, and so were we. Real Estate is local and very INFLATED.
5. Realtors(glorified used car salesmen) twist the numbers and lie, that is part of the job. All I have read over the last year are stats including the previous 12 months because they wanted to use the sales numbers form ‘06 (hot market) and 07′(sales down but sales prices high). You did not get any month to month stats because they were tumbling. Now there is no good new in the last twelve months, so what do they report, sales are up 11% from Jan ‘08 to Feb ‘08. REALLY, sales were in the toilet in Jan ‘08 so 11% above that is still terrible. And by the way home values in Utah have dropped in the last 12 months.
6. I have been following the Utah Real Estate religiosly for the last 15 months. I try to find real stats, but all I can really find are blogs run by Realtors trying to convince everyone that Utah is in so much better shape than the rest of the country, if it was you wouldn’t be writing trying to jam “Real Estate is Local” down our throats.
7. When the market was good Realtors were buying houses left and right as investment properties. I challenge anyone to find me a Realtor that has actually bought a house in the last six months, or will buy a house in the next two years. If they aren’t buying, neither should you!!
I don’t think it is accurate to paint details with broad strokes. You cannot use an average which is what data aggregators do. During the boom there were a lot of high end homes selling. So when the market shifted they stop selling.
So for example
5 homes sell, 4 @ $250,000 and 1 @ a Million dollars.
5 Homes with an average of $400,000.
Then the following month you have 5 homes sell
Ranging from $250,000 to $270,000 with an average of $260,000.
According to broad stroke average the prices have fallen on average of $140,000. When the reality is in that price range they have gone up $10,000. That is the problem with not breaking down Real Estate to a micro level.
The fact is the $300,000 and under market is very safe and “most” have room for growth in that price point.
I am not denying the ills in the higher prices. That has never been my position.
Let’s look at Salt Lake County broken down.
0-$300,000 – 3,361 active listings – 1,250 sale pending
$300-500,000 range 2,270 active listings – 337 sale pending
500,000 and above 1,569 active listings – 105 sale pending
One of the key fundamentals of the $0-300,000 range is the demographics. Utah has a completely different set of demographics then the other states. We have about 25,000 people a year enter the market just on natural growth.
If you bought a house today for $200,000 with an FHA 5.75% 30 year fixed you would be very safe.
I personally did not partake in all the building speculation and flipping. I do not believe in that style of business.
2/3rds of the Real Estate Agents in Utah got their license in the last five years. A lot of inexperienced people entered both the Real Estate and Mortgage industries in that time period. A small portion of people played in the speculation game.
I listed over 100 homes and spent some time with a group of investors and gave them the listing back and documented everything and reported it. I am not afraid to walk from a deal.
I keep track and I have had only one person that I represented as a buyer’s agent lose their home. It was not due to be in a bad purchase or a bad loan. He got mad at the world and stopped making payments and lost 25% equity. Not one has lost money over a five year period, not one.
You say that I lie. I ask you to show me in any of my post where I have lied.
Rob,
When housing was going up the last few years, you weren’t breaking out the market into three price ranges. You were shouting housing prices are rising 15% to 20% a year, buy before you are priced out of the market. I am suppose to trust your pending sale numbers which are compiled by Realtors, sure thing. Since when does anyone care how many sales are pending, with today’s lending standards, most of those homes will not close. And with only 737 sales all of February, I have a hard time believeing 1,692 are going to close. If they did, that would be over 100% increase and Ryan Kirkman would be doing cartwheels and making more rediculous statements about Utah housing being on the rebound.
Your pending sales are irrelevant and meant to mislead the public, along with you telling us how averages work(your readers are not stupid). These statements may not be lies, they are dishonest, misleading, and petty.
Why don’t your write an article stating the month to month and year over year changes in housing sales, housing inventory, and sold prices(like everyone was doing before the market turned). State the numbers, and don’t twist anything. You could even break it out into your three pricing groups. Post these numbers every month and we will see how stable the entire market is. I found a realtor that was doing this on Activerain.com(Keith Jeppson), but he hasn’t posted any numbers since July of 2007, I wonder why. This seems to be a fair request, but I don’t think you will do it, because it will not help home sales.
p.s. where is anyone going to find a house in Salt Lake County for 200,000?
Rob,
I have watched the market for many months now, plotted and charted all the statistics (I have many spreadsheets), and vistited homes almost every weekend. The truth is this, you are so very wrong. At best, the market will only lose 5-10 percent this year. The only way it is not a horrible time to buy now is if you get a short sale that is very very discounted. You state above that the lower end market is stable but that is such a very flawed analysis. Those are the homes that haven’t had the discounts and are the most overpriced. The higher value homes are coming down and once that happens the condos and lower end houses will also be hurting. People are actually better off buying the higher end homes if they can afford it because they get a better deal and may be able to buffer some of the drop that is to come.
The funny thing about this article is that it quotes a realtor magizine. Dispite what they think, Realtors are not economists; they are salemen. Not only that, they are immersed in a self feeding Realtor culture that only self promotes a good market and can’t be objective, but many are hurting for cash flow right now and can’t see straight. That puts them behind the average person on the street.
Potential Buyers,
Adam is way ahead on this issue. It is a very very poor time to buy a home and will be for at least a year.
Also, if you are a buyer out there, you would be foolish to waste money on a realtor. Go to utahrealestate.com to find homes and look at them on your own. Don’t worry about the paperwork, you can get a real estate attorney for an hourly rate (attorneys have ethical standards for their services. It probably won’t cost more than $500) rather than pay the huge 3 percent of the price of the home to buyer’s agent. And don’t let them lie to you saying it doesn’t cost you anything. Someone has to pay it. It may technically come from the seller’s pocket but it is definately built into the price of the home. Actually, the bank pays out the money on the buyer’s bill.
Another point, from my data I’ve gathered over the months I can tell you that inventory is still going up. Every week seems to add a couple hundred new homes for sale in Utah.
Lastly, for new buyers, don’t trust Realtor statistics. In 2007 there was a lot of appreciation in the early part of the year but when July and August came it tanked. It dropped 8 to 10 percent in the last 2 quarters but the realtors only wanted to tell you it was up 7 or so percent (17 in 1st two quarters -10 in last two quarters). That would suggest the market wasn’t headed down. Very dishonest.
Adam,
Thanks for being a voice of reason.
Rob,
You should be ashamed of yourself and your profession (if you can call it that).
What I find interesting is people think this is the first time the market has shifted. The market has always shifted and always will. The only thing new is the people following it.
Real Estate is a cyclical, just like the stock market. In fact the injection of new money that fueled the subprime market actually came from the stock market.
So far I hear a lot of points being made but no real data to support it. Yes inventory is up. When would be a good time to negotiate a deal when the sellers call all the shots or the buyers.
There are two types of markets.
1. Sellers Market
2. Buyers Market
WHAT DO YOU THINK “BUYERS MARKET” MEANS?
Mike,
amen.
This Rob charactor is your typical Realtor. He has not stated one piece of relevant information in any of his posts. I just want all the people out there to do their homework, and if they do, they won’t even consider buying a house right now, or using a Realtor EVER.
Rob,
We are not in a “Buyers market”, we are not in a “Sellers market”, and we are not in any part of the “Cycle”. This nation (including Utah) is in a massively inflated market in which no one has ever seen. Prices have never risen as fast as they did, and prices have never fallen as far as they are going to fall. This will be a historic crash and not until it hits rock bottom will we know what to call this current and future market.
As for you Rob, why don’t you try to salvage some dignity and post the numbers I asked you to post, or don’t post again!!!
I post numbers from the MLS.
There are active, pending and sold.
You have access to the active listings.
Looking at our flash report our office wrote over 23 Million dollars in volume this month.
Sit by and watch the opportunities go by.
Rob,
Post the numbers (from the MLS if you wish) that I asked you to. No one cares about your flash report, why don’t you tell everyone how far your volume was down from last year. And why don’t you post your final March numbers when they come out, and compare them with last years. Not to mention the quarterly numbers, you are going to have to pull a rabbit out of your hat to put a positive twist on those awful numbers.
I will happily sit by and watch the opportunity to over pay 25% go by.
Isn’t the MLS controlled by Realtors who lie, cheat, and steal to sell a home.
I hope you can sleep at night knowing that anyone you trick into buying a home right now will lose thousands upon thousands of dollars in the next few years.
I have the numbers. I hope that puts this dispute to rest. Rob, like so many other realtors, are dishonest and seek to scam the good people of Utah. I have had enough!
ZIP CITY 2nd 3rd 4th 2nd to 3rd 3rd to 4th 2nd to 4th
84006 COPPERTON $175,000.00 $182,500.00 $0.00 4.29% -100.00% -100.00%
84020 DRAPER $405,750.00 $391,950.00 $420,000.00 -3.40% 7.16% 3.51%
84044 MAGNA $180,000.00 $179,700.00 $170,000.00 -0.17% -5.40% -5.56%
84047 MIDVALE $220,000.00 $220,000.00 $221,900.00 0.00% 0.86% 0.86%
84065 RIVERTON $350,000.00 $371,545.00 $325,000.00 6.16% -12.53% -7.14%
84070 SANDY $243,000.00 $241,000.00 $220,000.00 -0.82% -8.71% -9.47%
84084 WEST JORDAN $232,000.00 $225,000.00 $221,000.00 -3.02% -1.78% -4.74%
84088 WEST JORDAN $289,200.00 $259,950.00 $264,750.00 -10.11% 1.85% -8.45%
84092 SANDY $393,000.00 $396,450.00 $410,000.00 0.88% 3.42% 4.33%
84093 SANDY $347,900.00 $345,225.00 $362,000.00 -0.77% 4.86% 4.05%
84094 SANDY $255,390.00 $251,000.00 $247,250.00 -1.72% -1.49% -3.19%
84095 SOUTH JORDAN $348,998.00 $363,530.00 $338,988.00 4.16% -6.75% -2.87%
84101 SLC $137,500.00 $166,500.00 $233,181.00 21.09% 40.05% 69.59%
84102 SLC $267,443.00 $280,000.00 $265,000.00 4.70% -5.36% -0.91%
84103 SLC $370,000.00 $382,500.00 $402,550.00 3.38% 5.24% 8.80%
84104 SLC $134,900.00 $144,000.00 $138,000.00 6.75% -4.17% 2.30%
84105 SLC $316,000.00 $299,500.00 $283,900.00 -5.22% -5.21% -10.16%
84106 SLC $265,000.00 $260,000.00 $261,500.00 -1.89% 0.58% -1.32%
84107 MURRAY $243,500.00 $255,000.00 $225,000.00 4.72% -11.76% -7.60%
84108 SLC $466,000.00 $390,250.00 $382,500.00 -16.26% -1.99% -17.92%
84109 SLC $339,000.00 $350,000.00 $283,000.00 3.24% -19.14% -16.52%
84111 SLC $207,000.00 $203,500.00 $178,400.00 -1.69% -12.33% -13.82%
84115 S SLC $198,000.00 $184,000.00 $179,000.00 -7.07% -2.72% -9.60%
84116 SLC $170,000.00 $178,900.00 $169,950.00 5.24% -5.00% -0.03%
84117 HOLLADAY $385,000.00 $388,500.00 $404,000.00 0.91% 3.99% 4.94%
84118 TAYLORSVILLE/ KEARNS $192,000.00 $195,000.00 $185,000.00 1.56% -5.13% -3.65%
84119 WVC $187,900.00 $175,100.00 $192,000.00 -6.81% 9.65% 2.18%
84120 WVC $192,000.00 $195,500.00 $185,900.00 1.82% -4.91% -3.18%
84121 COTTONWOOD $340,000.00 $333,900.00 $298,900.00 -1.79% -10.48% -12.09%
84123 TAYLORSVILLE/ KEARNS $226,500.00 $224,500.00 $252,450.00 -0.88% 12.45% 11.46%
84124 HOLLADAY $405,000.00 $387,450.00 $352,500.00 -4.33% -9.02% -12.96%
84128 WEST VALLEY $223,000.00 $219,000.00 $204,625.00 -1.79% -6.56% -8.24%
84010 BOUNTIFUL $249,900.00 $314,000.00 $285,900.00 25.65% -8.95% 14.41%
84014 CENTERVILLE $262,000.00 $269,000.00 $272,000.00 2.67% 1.12% 3.82%
84015 CLEARFIELD $184,500.00 $183,750.00 $184,650.00 -0.41% 0.49% 0.08%
84025 FARMINGTON $329,900.00 $330,450.00 $263,000.00 0.17% -20.41% -20.28%
84037 KAYSVILLE $349,900.00 $286,400.00 $269,000.00 -18.15% -6.08% -23.12%
84040 LAYTON $269,500.00 $265,500.00 $246,250.00 -1.48% -7.25% -8.63%
84041 LAYTON $205,000.00 $212,000.00 $200,500.00 3.41% -5.42% -2.20%
84054 N. SALT LAKE $263,950.00 $267,500.00 $253,282.00 1.34% -5.32% -4.04%
84075 SYRACUSE $260,000.00 $248,500.00 $250,000.00 -4.42% 0.60% -3.85%
84087 WOODS CROSS $235,450.00 $241,000.00 $231,250.00 2.36% -4.05% -1.78%
Those are 3rd to 4th quarter numbers. 2008 will definately be a lot worse.
Mike,
Thank You, I believe we have fought the good fight and won.
Rob,
that is an awful lot of negative numbers, and I’m sure Mike will be more than happy to post the first quarter numbers of ‘08 when they come out. Unlike yourself who will be trying to somehow turn a negative symbol into a positive symbol. Who knows maybe your FLASH REPORT will do it automatically .
Buyer’s market is only a catch phrase for realtors. However, if I defined it this is what it would mean. There is a solid correlation between income and home prices. That the average person can afford an average home. That renting, even with the tax break, wasn’t such a better deal (not just economical, the intrinsic value of the home considered). That there wasn’t such a huge discrepancy between the two. That in the short run (of course homes will go up in the long run) the market wouldn’t put a person upside down. Those are some items that are at the forefront of my thoughts to you question.
Hey, look at the bright side, the MLS just went above 21,000 home today!!!!!!!!!!!
I am well aware of the XL Quarterly report.
Here is the question I ask. If a zip code is showing prices are down 3%, does that mean every home lost 3%? Or could it be related to the fact not as many high end homes are selling?
The problem I see in reporting broad stroke averages is:
So for example
5 homes sell, 4 @ $250,000 and 1 @ a Million dollars.
5 Homes with an average of $400,000.
Then the following month you have 5 homes sell
Ranging from $250,000 to $270,000 with an average of $260,000.
According to broad stroke average the prices have fallen on average of $140,000.
That is why I break it down to price ranges.
btw thanks for the seo
Rob,
While the prices were rising, Realtors used the XL Report,in the same way you are showing it, to say that houses were appreciating at 20% per year. Now that prices are dropping you are trying to discredit the report, what a CROOK.
It is idiotic for you to show us a scale with only five homes being sold(once again the readers aren’t stupid, most of us have had a lot more education than a two month Realtor course)so why don’t you just admit that you are wrong.
Check out this article, you are hurting your own kind by lying about the current market. If Realtors would be honest and tell everyone the housing market is in the tank, it would correct quicker and you might actually be able to sale a home by 2010(not just pretend by marking on SALE PENDING).
http://seekingalpha.com/article/69852-how-counter-productive-is-realtor-association-spin?source=patrick.net
Adam,
It is hard to debate stats with when most of your comments are not about real estate. You use words like you (meaning me) and Realtors as synonymous. So I am not sure if when you are talking about me then you make comments like “you might actually be able to sale a home by 2010(not just pretend by marking on SALE PENDING)”. That is not a real estate conversation frankly I am not sure what it is. I have no problem you questioning my statistics, but the ranting I am not interested in that part.
You claim that realtors use the XL stats to show prices going up. I do not use that type of broad stroke analysis.
The example of five homes was exactly that an example of why broad stoke averages are flawed. One segment can have a problem and reflect on all the segments.
Are you saying there is no difference in the condition of the different price points? That was what the original post was about. There were comments from different economist some national and others local and I quoted more than one, I just happen to agree with the philosophy of one over the others.
Price points being
$0-300,000
$300-500,000
$500,000 and above
Mike made his comment about the 21,000 active listings. What he forgot to mention is that represents 29 counties. He also forgot to mention that there are 4,377 pending.
Awesome 21,300 homes!
21,400 Homes!
4572 Sale Pending
Rob,
you blog is officially a joke. Sales pending is a stat made up by Realtors, no one confirms it, or even cares about it(half of the homes you see for sale, have Sale Failed in the heading). Why don’t you post the amount of homes sold in March of 2008 and how far it has dropped from March of 2007(which was way down from 2006).
I know adam you are wiating for the market to drop 40% or is it 25% just depends on which blog you are ranting on. I hvae read your post on other sites and it is clear you are not basing things on fact.
I believe the 750k and above may have some significant drop in prices. But do you really believe or expect anyone else to believe you taht a $200,000 is going to be $120,-150,000 in the nexty year or two?
21,441 Active
4,584 Pending
So I guess I reported one and made up the other.
Rob,
a home on the market today for 200,000 was worth 120,000-150,000 three years ago. So yes Rob all houses in Utah are going to drop to PRE-BOOM prices.
Fact, Utah forclosures are up 93 percent in March from last March.
Fact, only 744 single family homes sold in Salt Lake County in March while 2,779 new listing added to the already huge inventory(hmm 4,584 are pending and only 744 sold, what’s wrong with your picture).
Fact, you are trying to mislead the public.
Obviously the only two people that are reading your blog stongly disagree with you. Maybe you should pull the plug.
Your right adam “all houses in utah are going to drop 25-40%” no point in debating with that.